Nov 13th 2009
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The study of complex systems has helped solve murders and uncover financial fraud. At UTS’s Complex Systems Research Centre it is being used to model and predict how social media spreads information, entertainment and marketing messages, Suresh Sood explains.
Traditional approaches to scenario modeling have sought to understand a complex system by looking at the entire system by decomposing the system into its basic components and studying the individual bits in-depth. Yet studying the individual parts of a system tells us very little indeed with regard to the behaviour of the overall system. In the study of complex systems, the interactivity of the components and their inter-relationships is the focus of attention. By understanding of these interactions, and the patterns of connections and interconnections, simple rules capable of simulating complex behaviour emerge.
A complex system is made up of many components and can take many forms. The human consciousness, a Facebook community, a gaggle of geese, interplay between North American Free Trade Agreement countries, a school of fish, a supply chain, a swarm of bees and an urban transportation system are all examples of complex systems as they occur in nature, the physical, economic and the online worlds.
Complex behaviours are counter-intuitive. For example, a motorist stuck in a congested lane of traffic on the Harbour Bridge does not apply systems thinking. It makes sense for the individual to move to a faster moving lane, but this idea fails to take into account a broader perspective of all components of the complex system that is Harbour Bridge traffic. The simple act of a single driver jumping lanes can be sufficient to disrupt the flow of traffic resulting in a traffic jam or gridlock.
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The study of complex systems has been used to understand patterns in crime (for example, in the capture and conviction in the 1990s of backpacker murderer Ivan Milat). The science of the study of complexity also figures prominently in revealing financial offences ranging from insider trading to money laundering.
The Complex Systems Research Centre (CSRC) in the Faculty of Business, UTS, explores the emergent properties of markets and marketing. Emergence refers to the evolution of complex adaptive systems as a result of interactions between events and participants. This stems from business executives increasingly recognising that marketing is driven by micro-level perturbations which lead to the emergent macro-level properties often dubbed ‘surprises’ – think cars changing lanes and creating gridlock.
Imagine a couple negotiating to buy an SUV with a car salesperson, but walking out with a fuel-efficient car. This true example highlights emergence in everyday negotiation activities involving salespeople. By listening to a variety of social media conversations (e.g. Facebook, Linkedin and Twitter) the CSRC studies the mechanisms that cause news stories, songs, or marketing messages to spread using self replication techniques much like a computer virus in online environments.
A key competency of the centre is the analysis of structured and unstructured textual information using network analysis techniques, linguistic and advanced text analysis software. Emerging areas of interest include using combinations of these competencies in conjunction with simulation techniques, in particular agent-based modelling.
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